TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta

The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.     

对中国综合风险管理机构体系建设的建议

在大量调研的基础上,分析了我国风险管理机构体系的现状和存在的问题,并以“统筹规划,专人负责,科学管理,共担风险”为原则,以梯形架构为理论基础,提出了对中国综合风险管理机构未来体系建设的一个建议,并对其进行了可行性分析。     

Prioritizing Wetland Restoration for Sediment Yield Reduction: A Conceptual Model

In a climate of limited resources, it is often necessary to prioritize restoration efforts geographically. The synoptic approach is an ecologically based tool for geographic prioritization of wetland protection and restoration efforts. The approach was specifically designed to incorporate best professional judgment in cases where information and resources are otherwise limited. Synoptic assessments calculate indices for functional criteria in subunits (watersheds, counties, etc.) of a region and then rank the subunits. Ranks can be visualized in region-scale maps which enable managers to identify areas where efforts optimize functional performance on a regional scale. In this paper, we develop a conceptual model for prioritizing watersheds whose wetlands can be restored to reduce total sediment yield at the watershed outlet. The conceptual model is designed to rank watersheds but not individual wetlands within a watershed. The synoptic approach is valid for applying the sediment yield reduction model because there is high demand for prioritizing disturbed wetlands for restoration, but there is limited, quantitative, accurate information available with which to make decisions. Furthermore, the cost of creating a comprehensive database is prohibitively high. Finally, because the model will be used for planning purposes, and, specifically, for prioritizing based on multiple decisions rather than optimizing a single decision, the consequence of prioritization errors is low. Model results cannot be treated as scientific findings. The conclusions of an assessment are based on judgement, but this judgement is guided by scientific principles and a general understanding of relevant ecological processes. The conceptual model was developed as the first step towards prioritizing of wetland restoration for sediment yield reduction in US EPA Region 4.     

NUTRIENT CONCENTRATION CRITERIA AND CHARACTERIZATION OF PATTERNS IN TROPHIC STATE FOR RIVERS IN HETEROGENEOUS LANDSCAPES1

ABSTRACT: A method is demonstrated for the development of nutrient concentration criteria and large scale assessment of trophic state in environmentally heterogeneous landscapes. The method uses the River Environment Classification (REC) as a spatial framework to partition rivers according to differences in processes that control the accrual and loss of algae biomass. The method is then applied to gravel bed rivers with natural flow regimes that drain hilly watersheds in New Zealand's South Island. An existing model is used to characterize trophic state (in terms of chlorophyll a as a measure of maximum biomass) using nutrient concentration, which controls the rate of biomass accrual, and flood frequency, which controls biomass loss. Variation in flood frequency was partitioned into three classes, and flow data measured at 68 sites was used to show that the classes differ with respect to flood frequency. Variation in nutrient concentration was partitioned at smaller spatial scales by subdivision of higher level classes into seven classes. The median of flood frequency in each of the three higher level classes was used as a control variable in the model to provide spatially explicit nutrient concentration criteria by setting maximum chlorophyll a to reflect a desired trophic state. The median of mean monthly soluble reactive phosphorus and soluble inorganic nitrogen measured at 68 water quality monitoring sites were then used to characterize the trophic state of each of the seven lower level classes. The method models biomass and therefore allows variation in this response variable to provide options for trophic state and the associated nutrient concentrations to achieve these. Thus it is less deterministic than using reference site water quality. The choice from among these options is a sociopolitical decision, which reflects the management objectives rather than purely technical considerations.     

The Bhopal gas leak: Analyses of causes and consequences by three different models

The Bhopal Gas Leak, India 1984 is the largest chemical industrial accident ever. Haddon's and Berger's models for injury analysis have been tested, together with the project planning tool Logical Framework Approach (LFA).

The three models provide the same main message: That irrespectively of the direct cause to the leakage, it is only two parties that are responsible for the magnitude of the disaster: Union Carbide Corporation and the Governments of India and Madhya Pradesh. The models give somewhat different images of the process of the accident.

Models developed for analysis of injuries can be used for analysing a complicated mega accident like the Bhopal gas leak, although different models might stress different aspects.     

2000年北京大气中SO2浓度削减50%的健康效益—人力资本法实例研究

人力资本法是评估环境污染健康损害价值（或治理污染的健康效益）的常用方法，但在发达国家，它逐渐被隐含价格法等所取代。本文通过实例研究，探讨了人力资本法在我国目前的适用性，研究结果表明，当使用流行病学关于疾病负担的计量方法（ＹＰＬＬ）时，人力资本法在我国有很大的适用性。     

Indicators of sustainable production: framework and methodology

This paper presents a new tool for promoting business sustainability — indicators of sustainable production. It first introduces the concept of sustainable production as defined by the Lowell Center for Sustainable Production, University of Massachusetts Lowell. Indicators of sustainable production are discussed next, including their dimensions and desirable qualities. Based on the Lowell Center Indicator Framework, the authors suggest a new methodology of core and supplemental indicators for raising companies' awareness and measuring their progress toward sustainable production systems. Twenty-two core indicators are proposed and a detailed guidance for their application is included. An eight-step model provides a context for indicator implementation. The paper concludes with a summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology as well as recommendations for testing the indicators.     

拉深件产生破裂、皱折原因及消除方法

如何消除制件在拉深过程中出现的破裂、皱折是生产中经常遇到的难题。因为造成拉深件破裂、皱折的原因是复杂多样的,而且解决问题的根本方法正是目前研究的焦点。为满足实际需要根据拉深件上常出现的破裂和皱折的形式,分析产生的原因及消除的方法。     

厌氧-好氧法治理中药废水研究

厌氧—好氧法处理中药废水 ,污泥中生物相丰富 ,原生、后生动物数量多 ,污泥沉降性能优良 ,出水水质好 ,CODCr、BOD5 等指标都达到了一级排放标准。